Fair Value: The Players Championship

TPC Sawgrass. The island green. Birds picking balls up and dropping them in the water. Golf season is really ramping up as the Masters and other majors are right around the corner. Most of the golfers have a few rounds under their belts and are rounding into mid season form.

This week, most of the world’s top golfers are competing for a share of the $15 million purse, and $2.7 million top prize. Rory McIlroy is your returning champ, and the field will look to shake off a difficult Bay Hill experience from last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Note: If you’d like to learn how we get to our Fair Value, check out This Post with a more detailed explanation.

Other Note: All odds are gathered from Draftkings Sportsbook

The Top Tier

Rory McIlroy: Fresh off a T-5 finish, defending champion Rory has the lowest odds of anyone in the field, and a Fair Value rank of 10th. This comes a bit lower than his 7th place rank last week, but reflects a stronger field. Given that Rory has yet to finish below 5th during the 2019-2020 season, there may be a good buying opportunity.

Tommy Fleetwood: Coming off of his first missed cut since 2018, Fleetwood looks to bounce back at The Players, where he finished 5th last year. Tommy Lads had flirted with a victory the week before, so we expect a strong performance out of him this week.

Dustin Johnson: 24th place is a surprisingly low projection for DJ this week given he also finished T-5 with Fleetwood last year. TPC Sawgrass typically favors driving accuracy over driving distance, so a lot of DJ loses a lot of his superpowers relative to the field.

The Best of The Rest

Marc Leishman: Coming off a strong solo 2nd place finish at the Arnold Palmer under very difficult conditions, Leishman is looking to carry his momentum into this week. However, Leishman currently sports the 213th best driving accuracy on tour, which does not bode well for him on a course that rewards accuracy.

Justin Rose: 2020 has not been kind to the 2013 US Open champion, who has missed 3 cuts in 4 tournaments played, and a T-56 at the Genesis Open when he did reach the weekend. Betting markets still favor his ability over his performance, looking at a 35th place finish. Rose finished T-8 here in 2019, so there is some hope for him this week.

Jim Furyk: Though he is coming off of three straight cuts, Furyk has some numbers in his favor as he enters this week: A 2nd place finish in the 2019 Players, and the #1 driving accuracy on tour this season, hitting over 80% of fairways. Furyk may be worth a sprinkle if everyone is scared off by his recent form.

What Do You Think?

What golfers catch your eye? Anyone you think is over or under valued? IPO opens on Wednesday at 9am ET!

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