NFL Fair Value Preview: Week 11

Week 11 is here and so is Jock MKT’s cash market! I’m here to guide you through some of the best value plays as well of steering you clear of those who may not be able to maintain their price.

Here are the Fair Value rankings and IPO prices for Week 11 along with some of my picks!

(* denotes questionable to play)

Buy: Michael Thomas ($6.15)

Thomas’ campaign has been nothing short of disastrous. After setting the all-time receptions record in 2019, various injuries and interdisciplinary reasons have kept him out of all but 3 games season. In those 3 games, he has not topped 60 YDS, scored a TD, or returned positive value in any of our contests. However, he gets gunslinger Jameis Winston under center this week instead of Drew Brees against the Falcons bottom-five pass defense. Look for Thomas to finally get right.

Don’t Buy: Aaron Rodgers ($6.49)

The MVP hopeful has been Mr. Dependable this season, returning positive value in all but 1 of our Sunday Contests this season. However, I don’t love him this week. The Colts’ defense has proven to be legit, allowing the least fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2020, and star WR Davante Adams has had an iffy week of practive. There are plenty of better plays well bellow Rodgers’ lofty price point.

Buy: Kirk Cousins ($5.48)

Talk about value QBs at a reasonable price point, Cousins and the Vikings passing attack proved their worth last Monday against the Bears and now have a juicy matchup against the Cowboys. Shockingly, Cousins leads the league in deep throw rate (17.6%) and the Cowboys have given up the most TDs on throws 20 yards or more. Go figure.

Buy: Philip Rivers ($5.25)

For as old and decrepit Rivers may look out there, he can still sling it. Since the Colts’ loss to the Browns on 10/11, Rivers has thrown 7 TDs and 2 INTs in 4 games and gone over 260 YDS in all but one (and it was against the Ravens). This Packers’ defense let Jake Lutton go up and down the field on them last week and may again be without top CB Jaire Alexander. Phil could really get it going this week.

Don’t Buy: Miles Sanders ($5.39)

Sanders has a date with the Browns this week. For all their warts, those Browns are amazingly 6-3 this season. Teams whose records seem to outweigh their own play usually comes back to good coaching. The Browns know themselves: they know they can run the ball, and stop the run. They will stack the box and force Carson Wentz to beat them. He very well might, but I don’t like Sanders to do too much alongside him.

Buy: Robby Anderson ($4.54)

This game can go one of two ways for Anderson. Scenario 1, Teddy Bridgewater plays through his questionable tag and slices up the putrid Lions’ secondary. All his WRs feast and everyone is happy. Scenario 2, Bridgewater can’t suit up and de-facto XFL MVP PJ Walker gets the nod. He takes some shots and makes some mistakes, but still finds a way to feed his old college teammate from Temple a healthy dosage of targets. Both of these are more than fine for Anderson.

Buy: Brandin Cooks ($4.04)

I had Cooks here last week. Hand up, he underperformed in what looked like possibly the windiest game of all time. In spite of the lack of production, he still commanded 8 targets and holds 28% target share since Week 5. That figure is good for 5th in league and Cooks should have his way with the Patriots’ secondary.

Don’t Buy: Travis Fulgham ($3.95)

I am still a believer in Fulgham’s ability and future, but he was completely overmatched by James Bradberry last week. Held to just 1 catch for 8 measly yards, he was virtually never open. This week he will have to tangle with Denzel Ward, another elite CB. The shock factor is over for Fulgham and he will need to routinely beat talented CBs to make an impact, I need to see him do it before I include him in any lineup.

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