NFL 101: Deebo Deep Dive

Earlier this year we did a series called “Jock Talk”, which looked at ways to improve a prospective Jocker’s MLB strategy. With NFL season right around the corner, lets dive into NFL data from 2021 for some tips and tricks for the upcoming season.

Last week we looked at which players are most likely to have high volatility performances that lead to high returns. This week, we’re going to look at a deep dive of one of the NFL’s-and Jock MKT’s-biggest breakout stars of last season: Deebo Samuel.

Deebo’s Jock MKT Season

Deebo Samuel had a stellar NFL season in 2021, putting up 1,405 receiving yards, 365 rushing yards, 14 total touchdowns and a league leading 18.2 yards per reception. So how’d he do in Jock MKT? Let’s take a look.

Deebo Samuel’s Profitability by Market in 2021

Deebo’s Big Start

Samuel started off hot, returning investors over 200% 3 times in the first 6 markets he participated in. Deebo cooled off slightly the rest of the season but still returned a profit in 17/31 markets at an average of 46% ROI. He finished among the top 3 in 5 of these markets (doubling his share price each time) and most importantly only lost 50% or more 4 times the whole season. Deebo fits the bill of the low risk/high reward investment profile that we have been looking at throughout this series.

Running Net Profit for Deebo Samuel

This graph shows the running net profit of a hypothetical investor who bought one share of Deebo in each market he was available. After a brief dip in late September, the investor is well on his way to a great NFL season, profiting $73 on a total investment of $244, good for a total ROI of about 30%. That’s pretty good, but is there a way to do better?

Using the concepts we’ve discussed throughout the article series, we can look to increase our ROI by selectively changing how many shares we buy of Deebo depending on market conditions. We know that one of the most important factors in determining profit is IPO price, so let’s buy more shares whenever Deebo’s IPO price is less than $8 (implying a breakeven rank of 20th place).

We also know that market conditions are different in single game markets vs. multi game markets. Given that Deebo is usually a focal point of the 49ers offense and there is less competition in single game markets, let’s always buy more shares of Deebo in single game markets.

For simplicity, let’s say under those conditions we will buy 5 shares of Deebo and we will buy 1 share of Deebo under all other circumstances.

Profitability With Selective Investment


Using the selective investment strategy, our ROI from investing in Deebo improves from 30% to 47%, an increase of nearly 57%. There was plenty of money to be made on Deebo during his journey to being one of the most productive receivers in the NFL last season, and by utilizing the concepts discussed in this article series you can outperform other investors on Jock MKT when you find this years breakout STAR!

Article Specific + 2021 NFL Data!

Looking to do some analysis of your own? We have all the data from this article right here and the data for ALL of last year right here, so get busy because NFL season can’t get here soon enough!

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