NFL 101: A Positional look at Single vs Multi Game Markets

Earlier this year we did a series called “Jock Talk”, which looked at ways to improve a prospective Jocker’s MLB strategy. With NFL season right around the corner, let’s dive into NFL data from 2021 for some tips and tricks for the upcoming season.

Last week we talked about single vs multi game markets and how there was an edge with cheaper Tight Ends in single game markets. This week, we’re going to take a broader look at positional returns to see if we can find out how to be profitable rr

Average Return by Position in Single and Multi Game Markets

Shown here is the average return by position in both single game and multi game markets. Does anything stand out to you, because something SURE does to me: look at those tight ends!

While the other 3 positions across both calculations show a decreasing or breakeven return in single game markets as compared to multi game markets, tight ends absolutely EXPLODE, with returns near 20% in single game markets. Let’s dig a little deeper into this trend.

Return of Tight Ends in Single Game Markets by IPO Price

Tight end return by IPO price Jock MKT

Looking into the profitability of Tight Ends by IPO price, the first thing that jumps out is how profitable cheap tight ends are. 3 out 4 buckets below $5 have average returns > 30%. So what’s the real world story to take away from this data? Well, one hypothesis is that in single game markets there is less players to go up against. If a lesser known tight end has a few catches for 30 yards and a touchdown in a 7 game slate with tons of other players, they’re likely to be a profitable investment but nothing special because of all the competition they have to face. But in a smaller slate with less competition? Well that little 30 yard + a TD game became a heck of a lot more valuable. Couple that with the fact that a lot of traders in the market are going to look for the big name instead of the forgotten about tight end means prices will stay low throughout IPO. This makes them low-risk, high-reward plays. If you’re struggling to find value in single game markets, look no further than the cheap tight end!

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