NBA Jock MKT Value Buys 12/1

By: Eric Romoff

Another day, another perfectly-sized slate in the NBA. The nine-gamer we’ve got on deck tonight is one of the smaller Wednesday schedules I can recall seeing this year and I am totally here for it. This five-to-nine game range really keeps player’s IPO prices affordable and opens up the top-20 to a long list of guys from the middle of the pack; as illustrated by my picks yesterday where Blue Chip Stephen Curry disappointed but a $6.72 Jaren Jackson Jr. vaulted to an eight-place finish and 78% ROI. Tonight I’ll be prioritizing stability from the Blue Chip assets and taking plenty of shots on upside with Mid-Cap and Penny Stock players. Looking at the board we have Sacramento as the only team coming in on a back-to-back and a very wide range of game totals out there. There are currently three games with totals at 206 or below where I’ll be trying to minimize my exposure and the crown jewel of the slate is the Charlotte vs. Milwaukee game that is sitting at a 230.5 total at DK Sportsbook. It feels like the investors on Jock MKT don’t put as much of a premium on pace and game totals as other fantasy platforms and that is something I fully intend on taking advantage of tonight. 

Blue Chip

Giannis Antetokounmpo | PF | Milwaukee Bucks

Jock MKT Projection – 52.71 (2nd)

Max IPO Bid -$14.65

Break-Even Rank – 5.65

There are three distinct tiers at the top of the projections tonight: Jokic at 61, Giannis and Luka around 50, and a heap of players around 42 or so. Whenever that is the case, I love attacking that middle group as they have a #1 overall finish very well represented on their range of outcomes but you’re not paying the premium you would for the top guy. Case in point is Giannis Antetokounmpo who needs to finish inside the top seven to break even tonight while Nikola Jokic’s break-even rating is set at an even 3. Giannis has finished as the fifth-highest-scoring player or better in 12 of his last 17 times out and has returned a profit every time his IPO price is below $14.00 this season. I love getting into this 230-point game and I’m not scared away by taking players from the favored team that is projecting for a blowout. We know Giannis can put up 30+ on any given night, as he’s averaging 27 a game on the season, but its the secondary statistics that raise his floor and introduce the upside to lead the slate in fantasy points. He’s averaging 11.8 boards, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steals per game and the Charlotte Hornets are allowing the fifth most rebounds and the third most blocks and steals to opposing power forwards. There simply isn’t a better spot for Giannis and he is easily my favorite investment among the Blue Chips.

Mid Cap

Malcolm Brogdon | PG | Indiana Pacers

Jock MKT Projection – 36.75 (15th)

Max IPO Bid -$7.05

Break-Even Rank – 21.8

This is really more of a pricing play than anything else. Malcolm Brogdon is currently projected to finish 15th in scoring tonight but his recommended IPO price is all the way down at 19th. If that holds true through the end of the night, Brogdon finishes with a 30% ROI right off the bat. Brogdon is a fine play in his own right as he’s settled into his role within a Pacers’ offense that is recently back to full-strength. He’s brought his investors 40% ROI over his last four games and he’s out-performed tonight’s 36.69 point projection in three of those four. His game environment tonight is the second-highest total on the board at nearly 220 points and his opponent in the Atlanta Hawks is the fifth-most favorable matchup for point guards on the year. Specifically, the Hawks are allowing more assists per game than any other team in the league (9.9) and the fifth-most threes made per game to opposing point guards. The three-ball is already a point of strength for Brogdon and a boost to his 5.9 assists per game should be enough for him to finish inside of the top-15 tonight and bring a healthy return to his investors on Jock MKT. 

Penny Stock

Luke Kennard | SG/SF | Los Angeles Clippers

Jock MKT Projection – 19.2  (95th)

Max IPO Bid -$3.10

Break-Even Rank -49

I’m hoping we can sneak this one in under the radar. Paul George has been ruled out for the Los Angeles Clippers and that is going to open up a ton of value for the secondary Clippers pieces. Terrance Mann is expected to secure the spot start in place of George and should see his IPO price skyrocket tonight. While Mann might see the biggest minutes boost, I think we see Luke Kennard get the biggest uptick to his usage in light of George’s absence. He is routinely seeing the most run for the Clippers when George is off the floor and tonight he gets a Sacramento team that is a top-10 matchup for his position. All the attention on the starting pieces should keep Kennard’s price tag pretty reasonable and if he can surpass 10 real-life points he can flirt with about 25 fantasy points. That would bring a nice little return on his IPO price, which should settle in around $3.00. 

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