NBA Jock MKT Pick ‘Em – May 7th – Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid Over 0.5 3-Pointers

Despite putting up a 30-point performance in Game 3, Embiid wasn’t able to lead the 76ers to victory and today is a must win game for the 76ers to keep this series alive. Going back to Boston down 3-1 would be devastating for Philadelphia and would diminish the chances of a conference finals appearance this year. Expect Embiid to put up a dominant stat line as the 76ers chances rely solely on his production today. 

The 3-point performance is one that is overlooked when it comes to Embiid player props but also one that presents great value. While Embiid is only shooting 18% from beyond the arc against Boston in 4 games this season, that percentage jumps to 30% when the 76ers are playing on their homecourt. Embiid ended the regular season successfully making at least 1 3-pointer in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games and he has hit 1 3-pointer in 2 of the 76ers’ 5 playoff games this season. 

Embiid is averaging 2.5 3-point attempts in the playoffs this season and given his performance at home, I’m leaning on the over 0.5 3-Pointer line today for Embiid against the Celtics. 

Let’s cash this play. 

Marcus Smart Over 12 Points

The 12-point line seems low given Smart’s performance as of late, both ending the regular season and in the playoffs. Smart is averaging 13 points in his last 10 games and almost 14 points vs. the 76ers this season. Smart has scored 15, 15, 12 and 22 points in Boston’s last 4 games and shooting at a 41% field goal success rate vs Philadelphia. 

Shooting 15 and 14 attempts in the Celtics last 2 games, the 12-point line is easily attainable with the field goal percentage that Smart is shooting. While he is a pass first point guard and the defense doesn’t necessarily focus on stopping Smart, he is going to be able to create opportunity for himself on the offensive end and when the defense focuses on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. 

Add in the stat line that Smart is shooting 35% from the 3 point line and went 3-9 from deep in Game 3, Smart can reach 12 points from all over the court. He is shooting just below 30% from the 3-Point line against the 76ers in 4 games this season. The smart play is on Marcus Smart to hit over 12 points today against the Philadelphia 76ers, so we’re going heavy on this prop line. 

Smart and the over. Hammer it. 

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