NBA Jock MKT Pick ‘Em – May 17th – Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

Al Horford Over 1.5 3-Pointers

While Al Horford has only hit the over 1.5 3-Point line 4 times in the Celtics last 10 games, he is still one of the more reliable shooters from Boston and I expect him to hit this over tonight in Game 1 at home vs. Miami.

One of the primary reasons why Al Horford’s three-point shot will flourish against the Miami Heat is his ability to stretch the floor. Horford’s presence on the perimeter as a shooting threat forces opposing teams to step out and guard him, creating more space for his teammates to operate. This style of play allows Horford the opportunity to find open looks beyond the arc, enabling him to capitalize on scoring opportunities and deliver from downtown. When analyzing past matchups between Al Horford and the Miami Heat he has consistently performed well against them, often exceeding his season averages. With an understanding of their defensive schemes and tendencies, Horford has been able to exploit mismatches against those guarding him and can find success from the 3-point line.

Horford shoots a whopping 48% from 3 against the Miami Heat and 49% from 3 when playing at home at TD Garden this season. He shoots as many as 7 3-pointers per game, which gives him ample opportunity to hit the over on the 1.5 3-pointer line given his successful shooting percentage. The Celtics center has a 50% success rate from deep in his career.

Given the heightened pressures of Game 1 and the fact that Horford is a seasoned veteran, the smart money is on Horford to hit the over. Let’s cash.

Kevin Love Over 5 Rebounds

Kevin Love’s ability to secure rebounds, particularly on the defensive end, is crucial in limiting the Celtics’ second-chance opportunities and preventing their offensive flow. Love has a significant size advantage over many of the Celtics’ front court players, specifically Al Horford and Robert Williams. His 6’10” frame and wingspan allow him to establish excellent rebounding position against smaller opponents. His size advantage alone provides a compelling reason to expect him to exceed the 5-rebound mark in Game 1.

Throughout his career, Love has demonstrated the ability to elevate his rebounding efforts in critical games. His experience and understanding of the importance of securing rebounds in playoff matchups should give over players confidence that he will surpass this line. With the Celtics likely focusing their defensive efforts on containing the other Heat stars of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo , Love’s ability to exploit mismatches and capitalize on offensive rebounds will present him with numerous opportunities to exceed the 5-rebound mark.

Love is averaging 5 rebounds against Boston this season and that number goes up to 6.5 rebounds when playing on the road and during the course of the regular season. He is averaging 20 minutes per game and with opportunities on every possession from both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, there is plenty of opportunity to secure the 5 rebound line.

Hammer the over tonight for Kevin Love’s 5 rebound line.

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