NBA Jock MKT Pick ‘Em – March 13th – Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings

Jrue Holiday Under 4.5 Rebounds 

This line is way too high after Holiday’s performance against the Warriors where he filled the stat sheet with 19 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists a block and a steal. This inflated his O/U for rebounds tonight because he has only secured more than 4 rebounds twice since the All Star break. In the 5 games the Bucks have played in March, Holiday has only gone over 4.5 rebounds once, and that was his monstrous night on Saturday against the Warriors, where he pulled in 9 rebounds. Even with 9 rebounds against the Warriors, Holiday is still averaging less than 4.5 rebounds in the month of March. 

The Kings have much more size than the Warriors do, and with Holiday matching up against De’Aaron Fox and his 6’6 wingspan, do not count on the Bucks PG on the glass tonight. 

We’re heavy on the under tonight on Holiday’s 4.5 line.

Grayson Allen over 2.5 3-Pointers Made

Greyson Allen has always been reliable for the long ball but since the all star break, the Bucks guard has been hitting the three at the highest clip of his career. Since February 9th, the Bucks have played 13 games. Allen has scored at least 2 three-pointers in 11 of them. He has hit 18 threes over the 6 games played in March and last time he squared up with the Kings, Allen went 2/4 from deep while logging roughly 6 minutes less time on the floor than his season average. 

Count on Allen to take advantage of Sacramento’s porous guard defense as the Kings rank 22 out the 30 teams the the NBA against their opponent Three Point % allowed.

Allen and the over is the play.

Brook Lopez Over 1.5 Turnovers

Over his last 6 contests, Lopez has hit the over 1.5 turnovers 5 times. Over his last 3 games, Lopez has 9 turnovers and is averaging 2.3 in the month of March. This is slightly down from his February average of 2.5 turnover per game but still, the over for turnover for Lopez is one of the better lines we are seeing tonight as we comb through the stat sheets.

Lopez is going to to have to deal with a fellow 7-footer against Kings tonight in Domantas Sabonis, who is being hailed as one of the most frustrating and pesky defenders in the league. Coming off a night where Sabonis had 2 steals against Suns center Deandre Ayton, Lopez will have some trouble dealing with the Kings center and the teams overall defense, which ranks 7th in the league in turnovers

Hammer the over 1.5 turnovers tonight for Lopez.

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