NFL Fair Value Preview: Week 3

Week 3 is upon us and so is Jock MKT’s weekly NFL IPO. This Sunday may feel a tad anticlimactic with the bonafide best teams in the league playing on Monday night, but I’ve always been known to save a little room for dessert. Anyway, here are the Fair Value Rankings across the league for week 3, who I think is a value buy at their IPO, and who I think is not.

Buy: Miles Sanders ($5.47)

Sanders busted out in a huge way last week with 23 total touches (20 carries, 3 receptions) and looked like the lead back we all expected to see after he finished 2019 as a top 5 RB over the final quarter of the season. Boston Scott turned out to be a complete non-factor and Sanders should run all over a Cincinnati defense that gave up RB1 numbers to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in week 2.

Don’t Buy: Kyler Murray ($8.11)

Hey now, don’t get mad. Murray has taken a true step this season and proven himself to be one of the great talents in the NFL. That being said, I have trouble buying him at this price; 3rd most expensive on the board and just $0.07 behind the great Lamar Jackson. As thoroughly as the Packers destroyed the Lions last week, Aaron Rodgers was just good, not great. Look for the Cardinals to run the ball down the Lions throats’ in this matchup and Kyler to perform, but not at this price tag

Buy: Jonathan Taylor ($5.41)

About to say something groundbreaking: the Jets are bad. Like very very bad. They allowed an 80 yard TD to Raheem Mostert while most people were still stumbling and fumbling to their couch. More egregious, they watched Jerrick McKinnon scamper for 51 YARDS ON 3RD AND 31 later on. Enter the immensely talented Taylor with an absolute strangelhold on the Colts starting job (Nyheim Hines only mustered 1 touch last week) and every reason to pop off. Fire him up, folks.

Buy: Kenyan Drake ($4.71)

Did I say run the ball down the Lions’ throats? Owning Aaron Jones vs the weak Lions front seven turned out to be a prerequisite to being in the money last week. Drake has a had a pedestrian start given his lofty preseason expectations, but he has still accrued 36 carries in two weeks. With the usage there, I expect him to tear the Lions apart and make that $4.71 IPO look like pennies.

Don’t Buy: Austin Ekeler ($4.00)

The darling of last season’s RBs, Ekeler has managed to be both effective and a disappointment so far this season. While he’s excelling as a runner (35 carries, 5.1 YPC), he is not putting up nearly the receiving numbers he was a year ago. So far, his snaps either split out wide or in the slot have been cut in half and that has dramatically reduced his usage as a pass catcher. A game against the lowly Panthers does not offer a great gamescript for Ekeler to provide enough value to warrant his price among this tier of players.

Buy: Aaron Jones ($3.19)

What?! The league leader in rushing and fantasy points (among non-QBs) priced this low? It can’t be! Jones has the 44th ranked FV, behind the aforementioned Hines, and should be in your portfolio at this price. Dating back to last year, the only thing this guy does is produce. Of course, Jamal Williams and AJ Dillion are both lurking and responsible for Jones still only being able to attain about a 50% snap share, but he will certainly exceed this lowly price tag.

Buy: Odell Beckham Jr. ($2.94)

The talent has to win out at some point, right? Beckham is too good to NEVER turn this target share into production. His 16 targets are 22nd most in the league, tied with perennial #1s Julio Jones and Adam Thielen. The Browns revamped offensive line should put up at least a formidable fight versus the Football Team’s vaunted pass rush and allow Baker Mayfield to pick apart their weak secondary. Odell presents tremendous value this week.

Buy: Daniel Jones ($2.93)

My sleeper of the week, Jones is going up a 49ers defense that suddenly does not look so scary. Their secondary has never been a strong suit, and then Richard Sherman went down. The pass rush was their bread and butter, but DeForest Buckener is a Colt and, Dee Ford is out indefinitely, and both Nick Bosa and Soloman Thomas are out for the season with torn ACLs. Additionally, the 49ers will be flying across the country for the second time in a week. If the Giants let Jones sling it, this could be a huge week for the 2nd year pro.

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