Fair Value: The Travelers Championship

Having sports back on television feels like a breath of fresh air compared to a stale few months. RBC Heritage was a huge success for Jock MKT and we are forging ahead with our Fair Value Preview of this week’s Travelers Championship.

TPC River Highlands should play much different than Harbor Town last week. As a Pete Dye course, there are a multitude of short and medium Par-4s present. River Highlands is home to the second shortest Par-4 on the tour at 296 yards and 9 total under 450 yards. A Dye course to a tee.

Thus, ball striking will be key and where value can be found among the field, mainly from those who gain strokes off the tee. Additionally, players have hit the fairway at River Highlands nearly 67% of the time compared to 61% at all other PGA Tour courses. This means there is likely to be a tendency among players to attack from the first stroke.

Here are the FV Ranks among the field and who we think looks like they could outperform their IPO pricing:

The Favorites

Bryson DeChambeau: Everyone knows about DeChambeau’s big drive (1st on the Tour in driving distance). He’s also top 10 in shots gained off-the-tee and tee-to-green. He’s been crushing the ball and is a strong bet to finish at least in the top 10 at the Travelers.

Abraham Ancer: Ancer comes into the Travelers with past success at the course (T8 in 2019) and hopes to carry over a hot stroke from his 2nd place finish from last week. More like white-hot on Sunday, he hit every single green in regulation! His game lacks around the green, which can be hidden at River Highlands.

Bubba Watson: For someone who has won this course three times, a FV Rank of 22.5 seems incredibly generous and worth an investment. His strong tee game (top 11 in SG:OTT) and powerful drive (top 7) are icing on the cake.

The Middle Tier

Sergio Garcia: A great ball striker but poor putter, a few strokes gained on the greens could put him right in the championship mix. Top 5 in both SG:OTT and SG:TTG, this course plays perfectly to his game. However, some missed putts early could put him in real danger. A volatile pick if I ever saw one.

Joaquin Niemann: The young gun is coming off a T5 finish at RBC Heritage and already has a T5 under his belt in last year’s Travelers. No longer having the pressure of securing his first Tour victory on his back, he could mix it up near the top of the board on his second go around.

JT Poston: An under the radar player, Polston has been feeling himself since the return to play with two T10 finishes. On the other hand, he is 0/3 on cuts at TPC River Highlands. Proceed with caution.

A Dark Horse

Kevin Streelman: Never a marquee player, Streelman’s only two victories all time have come on Pete Dye courses (here and at Valspar). That alone could make his 44.6 FV rank a steal.

What do you think? Check out the entire field below.

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