Fair Value Preview: Workday Charity Open

Bryson DeChambeau’s string of strong play culminated in a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic over the weekend. Next up on the Tour Restart is the Workday Charity Open this weekend.

The first of back to back tournaments being played in Dublin, Ohio, hometown of Jack Nicklaus, Muirfield Village is traditionally home to the Memorial Tournament, taking place next weekend. To keep the field from playing 8 consecutive rounds on the exact same course, the groundcrew has made a series of modifications for the Workday Charity Open.

The rough has been reportedly ‘grown out’ (just like last week) and the notoriously fast greens slowed. Three holes have also been altered: 8, 11, and 15 will be a combined 64 yards longer with 15 being the longest at 31 yards, pushing the course total to 7,456.

Without knowing whether these adjustments will have a legitimate impact on the Tournament, we must use past results from both Muirfield Village and the Firestone Country Club in Akron, which has played remarkably similarly.

A long course containing six Par 4s of 450 yards or greater, approach will be pivotal for the leaders. Those six holes accounted for 45 double-bogeys last year alone! 9 out of the past 10 winners have shot -12 or lower, so a few crooked numbers can cook any competitor’s chances at winning. Leaders will need to score early and often to stay atop the board.

Here are the FV ranks among the field and who looks like they could overperform their IPO:

The Favorites

Justin Thomas – The odds on favorite in Jock MKT Fair Value ($10.02), Thomas is a solid play, even after disappointing two weeks ago at the Travelers Championship. He secured two top 10 finishes the weeks prior and remains near the top of the tour in SG:ATG (7th) and SG:TTG (4th). Look for Thomas in the top 10 again this week.

Patrick Cantlay – Loooove the favorites this week. Cantlay has the 2nd best odds to win, but only the 4th highest FV price ($8.85). This gives his IPO inherent value. He has excelled at both Muirfield and Firestone in the past, earning the 2nd most shots gained on approach and 3rd total compared to the rest of the field in addition to winning the 2019 Memorial.

Victor Hovland – Hovland has been knocking on the door the last two weeks, finishing top 12 in each. Losing nearly 7 strokes putting combined over those events almost completely negated his leading SG:TTG. Needing a top 20 finish to profit, Hovland feels like a MUST BUY at $6.95 if he can get any putts to fall.

The Middle Tier

Jordan Spieth – A legacy pick, Spieth has had plenty of success at Muirfield and Firestone a not-so-long time ago and comes in 8th among the field in SG:TOT. Having flashed since the return to play without the ability to put multiple rounds together, I like Spieth to overachieve his FV price of $5.85.

Adam Hadwin – Top 5 at Rocket Mortgage classic last weekend, Hadwin has gained strokes on his approach in each of his last 5 appearances. More of the same and he will be in the mix with the leaders come Sunday, which makes his $5.61 FV price a bargain.


Kyle Stanley– Stanley has performed very well both here and at Firestone, being top 10 in SG:APP (4th) and SG:TOT (8th). His FV price of $4.13 feels like a tremendous buying opportunity.

Charl Schwartzel– Similar to Stanley, Schwartzel has also excelled at Muirfield and Firestone. He’s 5th in SG:TTG and 9th in SG:APP. For a FV price of $3.32? Yeah, sign me up.

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