Fair Value Preview: Week 6

Here we go: Week 6 is here and so is our weekly Jock MKT cash market! If you read my preview last week, you’d see I made some great calls (Don’t Buy: Amari Cooper, Buy: Adam Thielen) and some not so great calls (Buy: Alvin Kamara, Buy: DJ Chark). Nevertheless, time to get back on the horse.

Here are the Fair Value Rankings and IPO prices for Week 5 along with favorite and least favorite buys!

(* denotes player is questionable)

Buy: Deandre Hopkins ($5.43)

Death, taxes, and WRs going off against the Cowboys. Their opponents #1 WR has gained at least 88 yards in every game this season, gone over 100 yards 4 times, and scored multiple TDs twice. None of those guys were Hopkins, either. Scoop him up with the utmost confidence.

Don’t Buy: Lamar Jackson ($6.67)

This is mostly speculative, but the Ravens’ gameplan last week makes me think the knee injury that forced Jackson out of practice last week is more serious than Coach Harbaugh has led on. He rushed for just 3 yards on 2 attempts, each by far the lowest of his career. With his rushing floor in question, it is difficult to justify this price.

Buy: Adam Thielen ($4.66)

Going back to the Thielen-well for the second time in as many weeks. He has been incredibly productive this season (44 TGTs, 29 REC, 364 YDs, 6 TDs) and I see no reason for this trend to change ahead of a juicy matchup with the Falcons defense. They are giving up the highest opponent’s passer rating in the league at 125.1 and Thielen should be a beneficiary of that.

Buy: Jared Goff ($4.60)

The 49ers defense has really taken a hit this season. The losses of DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and Solomon Thomas have ransacked the once feared unit. They were torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and Goff and co. have been better than the Dolphins by virtually every metric.

Don’t Buy: Carson Wentz ($4.81)

More about the matchup with the Ravens than Wentz’s ability, opposing QBs (besides Pat Mahomes) have been unable to unlock DC Wink Martindale’s blitz heavy attack so far this season. Center Jason Kelce will be the Eagles’ only starting lineman playing this week, and that spells trouble for Wentz. Stay away!

Buy: Alexander Mattison ($4.49)

Did I say the Falcons’ defense is awful? It’s worth saying again. They have allowed the most receptions to opposing RBs this season and the 8th most points overall. Mattison is blessed with a juicy matchup in what is expected to be his first start of the year.

Buy: Stefon Diggs ($3.88)

This is my “Don’t Overthink It” pick of the week. Diggs has been a revelation this season for the Bills, putting up monster numbers on a weekly basis while transforming their offense. Their game against the Chiefs this week will be a shootout and Diggs’ 26.3% target share will all but ensure elite production.

Don’t Buy: Devonta Freeman ($3.97)

Freeman seems to have carved out a decent role within the Giants offense and produced last week, but the Cowboys’ D is so bad it makes the WFT’s D look like the ‘85 Bears. I would be shocked if the Giants’ O-Line could create any space for Freeman.

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