Fair Value Preview: Week 5

Week 5 is upon us and so is Jock MKT’s weekly NFL IPO. With a quarter of the season behind us, we are beginning to have a clearer picture of the trends and patterns that will lead to huge payouts. The first step, though, is our IPO. 

Here are the Fair Value rankings for Week 5 along with my favorite (and least favorite) buys!

Buy: Alvin Kamara ($6.80)

Really going out on a limb here vouching for the most expensive non-QB on the board, I know, but Kamara’s floor is so rock-solid right now I see absolutely no reason not to find a way to include him in every lineup. He is 4th in the NFL with 30 receptions and 1st in YAC by a countrymile (304, 2nd has 200). Fire up Kamara.

Don’t Buy: Dak Prescott ($7.31)

I know that Dak leads the league in passing yards. I know he set the RECORD for passing yards through 4 games with 1,690 yards so far this season. I also know that much of that production has been fueled by 3 consecutive games where the Cowboys found themselves either coming from behind or in a shootout. I don’t expect either to be the case against the hapless Giants and feel like Dak may underdeliver.

Buy: Mike Davis ($4.94)

In just 2 weeks since Christian McCaffrey has gone down, Davis has 29 rushing attempts, 130 yards (4.5 YPC), 15 targets, 13 receptions, 72 yards, and 2 total touchdowns. This elite production from a player who was considered nothing more than an afterthought this time last month. This week he gets the porous Falcons’ defense who can’t stop a nosebleed. Play Davis with confidence.

Buy: Adam Thielen ($4.49)

Since the Seahawks have ‘Let Russ Cook’ this season, it has exposed their weak defense much more than in year’s past. They are allowing a league worst 476.8 yards per game and ungodly 401 passing yards. Their secondary, which will be without Jamal Adams, has allowed Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, and Devante Parker to all exceed 100 yards and I expect Thielen to reach the same plateau.

Don’t Buy: Amari Cooper ($4.89)

See ‘Don’t Buy: Dak Prescott’. The Cowboys are going to handle the Giants, but it will not look their previous 4 games. While Cooper has been, statistically speaking, the best WR in the league thus far his volume will likely take a serious hit this week. That and he will draw Giants CB James Bradberry who has garnered PFF’s 2nd highest coverage grade through 4 games. Fade Amari.

Buy: DJ Moore ($4.15)

Sticking with the Panthers, I would tell you to buy everyone in this offense if I could. The Falcons are a literal doormat and the Panthers are going to move up and down the field at will. While Moore has been a mild disappointment this season, he has maintained a steady target share (22.7%) and is ready to bust out.

Buy: DJ Chark ($3.80)

Big week for DJs, this feels like a music festival. Chark returned to action in a big way last week with 8 catches for 95 yards and 2 scores. He led the WRs in routes run, snaps, and targets and sits safely atop this depth chart as Garnder Minshew’s favorite weapon. He should torch the pitiful Texans secondary.

Don’t Buy: TY Hilton ($3.65)

Hilton has been brutal this season, averaging less than 50 yards per contest and held without a TD. With no other legitimate receiving threat in this Colts offense, Hilton will draw Denzel Ward all afternoon. I do not think this is the week he gets off the schneid and wouldn’t buy him, even at this low price-tag.

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