Fair Value Preview: Week 13

Week 13 is here and so is Jock MKT’s cash market! I’m here to guide you through some of the best value plays as well of steering you clear of those who may not be able to maintain their price.

Here are the Fair Value rankings and IPO prices for Week 13 along with some of my picks!

(* denotes questionable to play)

Buy: Davante Adams ($9.28)

If Monday night is any indication, the Eagles struggle with top-end outside WRs. DK Metcalf torched CB Darius Slay and Adams should as well. A true target hog, Adams has maintained his dominant share (28%) over the past two weeks even after the return of the Packers’ #2 WR Allen Lazard. This is Adams’ offense through and through.

Don’t Buy: Deshaun Watson ($6.94)

Watson remains transcendent in the wake of chaos, but this latest blow may be too much for him to overcome (in the short-term, at least). Will Fuller has been suspended for the rest of the season due to a positive PED test. Since 2017, Watson has averaged 1.4 fewer YPA along with 55 fewer yards and nearly 1 less TD without Fuller on the field. Mind you, this is when he still had Deandre Hopkins on the other side of the field. Fade Watson until further notice.

Buy: Kirk Cousins ($5.78)

In the midst of what feels like the best stretch of his career, Cousins is a steal against the Jaguars’ putrid secondary. Over his last four weeks, Cousins has completed greater than 70% of his passes for 1,133 total yards (283.25 per game) and 11 TDs versus just 1 INT. The return of Adam Thielen to the lineup will only serve to improve Cousins’ monster ceiling.

Buy: James Robinson ($5.12)

It’s 2020 and Robinson has become one of the most certain performers in the NFL. Over his last five games, with three different QBs under center, he’s averaged 24.4 touches per game along with 120.2 all-purpose yards. The Vikings should not cause any type of impediment to Robinson’s continued success.

Don’t Buy: Matt Stafford ($5.35)

What an ugly stretch here for Stafford. Seemingly destined for a messy divorce from the Lions at season’s end, it’s hard to find reasons to spend your cash on him. Once again, Kenny Golladay nor Deandre Swift have been participants at practice this week ahead of a matchup with the Bears. Stay away.

Buy: Austin Ekeler ($4.84)

My favorite value on the board, Ekeler returned to the Chargers’ lineup in a big way last week. While rumors questioning his availability and workload swirled, he cashed in with 30 (!!) total touches against the Bills. Another week of practice should further cement Ekeler’s status as an elite performer for the rest of the season. Get him before everyone else catches up.

Buy: Devante Parker ($4.35)

There is some risk involved here since Parker’s value is entirely tied to Ryan Fitzpatrick being under center. Since the start of last season, Parker has averaged just under 10 targets and 100 yards per game with Fitzpatrick with Preston Williams is inactive. On the other hand, he’s averaged less than 40 yards per game in Tua’s four starts. This is a tough call, but the payoff could be huge.

Don’t Buy: Alvin Kamara ($4.56)

Man, what a fall from grace. On track to smash all sorts of fantasy scoring and receiving records with Drew Brees under center, Kamara’s role has been markedly different with Taysom Hill at QB. Kamara has only received three targets since the switch (two games), he did not get less than four targets in any SINGLE GAME with Brees. It is impossible to trust this type of low volume, even at this price point.

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