Fair Value Preview: Week 12

Week 12 is here and so is Jock MKT’s cash market! I’m here to guide you through some of the best value plays as well of steering you clear of those who may not be able to maintain their price.

Here are the Fair Value rankings and IPO prices for Week 12 along with some of my picks!

(* denotes questionable to play)

Buy: Dalvin Cook ($6.57)

In the 4 games since Cook returned from his hamstring injury, he has touched the ball at least 24 times in every game and not gained less than 112 all-purpose-yards in any contest. He is in a smash-spot against the Panthers and could be the top overall scorer this week.

Don’t Buy: Matt Ryan ($6.21)

Julio Jones’ status for this Sunday is in question and Matt Ryan struggles tremendously without his superstar wideout. Ryan has averaged just 250.8 yards in the 5 games Julio has either missed or played in less than 50% of the Falcons’ snaps. Even if Jones plays, he will not be 100% and that creates a substantial risk for Ryan at this price.

Buy: Taysom Hill ($5.45)

If last week’s usage was any indication, this may be the biggest bargain on the board. In his professional starting debut, Hill threw 23 passes and took 10 carries (5 were scrambles, 5 were designed runs, and 2 were on the goal line). His red zone accuracy left some to be desired, but Sean Payton still had no premonitions with letting him air it out. Logic would insist he will further open up the playbook this week leaving the opportunity for Hill to be a top 5 earner in the market.

Buy: Tyreek Hill ($5.03)

Purely based on talent, this is an unbelievable value. Tyreek Hill as the 11th most expensive pass-catcher? Heck yeah! Moreover, Hill has both played his best games and been most involved in KC’s gameplan in more competitive games. In one-possession games (4), Hill is averaging 12.25 targets and 98 yards per game. This week’s showdown with the Bucs should be competitive and Hill should get his.

Don’t Buy: Todd Gurley ($4.88)

The Raiders’ run defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is Gurley. He is averaging a paltry 3.7 Y/A on the season and has shown little by way of explosiveness. Not to mention, he was on the field less than back-up Brian Hill last week en route to his lowest snap share of the season (37%). It is hard to find a reason to trust Gurley moving forward.

Buy: Justin Jefferson ($4.67)

Jefferson is a stud, plain in simple. Just 12 games into his NFL career and he has already established himself as one of the premier playmakers in the game. He leads the league in catches over 15 yards and is second in YPC with 18.8. Also, Adam Thielen’s status is up in the air due to his positive Covid test which would only serve to get Jefferson more looks on Sunday. Buy buy buy.

Buy: Darius Slayton ($4.40)

Slayton has garnered at least 7 targets in 6/10 games this season, providing a higher floor than many would assume from the big-play threat. Going up against the Bengals this week, who lost their franchise QB to a devastating injury, was followed by a slew of rumors coming out about the tenuous status of their coaching staff and locker room, and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, Slayton appears to be a real bargain.

Don’t Buy: Tyler Boyd ($4.11)

Sticking with this game, the Bengals season is in danger of going straight down the tubes. Burrow felt like the lynchpin holding the whole thing together and we will not be seeing him for a while. I doubt the right arm of Brandon Allen can free Boyd from Bradberry-Island this week. Avoid all Bengals.

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