Fair Value Preview: US Open

The Fair Value preview is back this week after a little hiatus following Dustin Johnson’s victory in the Tour Championship! The 2020-21 season kicked off last week with the Safeway Open and Stewart Cink took home the hardware with a -21 (267) after holding off Doc Redman’s 62 on Sunday.

I am very very very sure we will not see anyone shoot 20 under par at this week’s US Open. The tournament will be played at Winged Foot Golf Club located in Mamaroneck, NY, historically one of the most difficult courses on the Tour. The last Open here, played in 2006, was won by Geoff Ogilivy at 5 strokes over par. That was the last time a golfer won a tournament, major or otherwise, without shooting under par for any of the four rounds.

This course is a true beast: Par 70, 7,469 yards, rough thicker than the Amazon Forrest, and greens faster than astroturf. Bogeys will be impossible to avoid, but incredibly important to limit for any players who want a chance at the top spot. Ball-striking will be important, but only when done accurately. A 400 yard bomb will do little good if its in the slop. More so, solid approach will be incredibly important in limiting exposure to said rough along with mitigating the effects of the rapid greens.

Here are the Fair Value Rankings among the field and who looks like they could outperform their IPO pricing:

Jon Rahm ($10.77)

If Dustin Johnson wasn’t lighting the Tour on fire over the past month, we would be talking a lot more about Rahm’s run of form. Top 6 or better for three consecutive tournaments, the bonafide 2nd best golfer on the planet leads all golfers in True SG:OTT over his past 24 rounds with the accuracy to hold up at Winged Foot.

Daniel Berger ($7.55)

Berger, while flying under the radar, was 8th in total SG among all 2020 Tour participants. His incredibly well-rounded game will play up this weekend. $7.55 feels like a steal here.

I’ll be honest, I’m just not feeling any of our ‘Middle Men’ this week, so here are three likes outside the Top 25 FV Rank (who are all fringe ‘Middle Men’ to be honest):

Sungjae Im ($5.46)

I’ll say it, I am basically a Sungjae-Fan-Boy. Watching his second round 64 at the Championship you just know this guy has a gear he can hit if he finds any consistency. His SG:OTT improved every day during that Tournament and I would look for that trend to continue.

Billy Horschel ($5.25)

In a similar boat to Im, Horschel is just a better player than his price indicates. His 2nd place finish at Wyndham feels like 100 years ago, but his SG:APP has been trending up since the St. Jude and I love his value at this price.

Sergio Garcia ($4.72)

Sure, why not? Serg does a lot of things well that aren’t 1) putting and 2) keeping a level head, but let’s consider the driver more than the negatives here, OK?

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