Fair Value Preview: The Masters (Part 2: The Value)

By Obie Kahne

Major tournaments like The Masters mean more cash up for grabs, and more cash means more Fair Value Previews! 

The Favorites preview covered the top-25 players in the field, beginning with Jon Rahm ($9.20) and ending with Brooks Koepka ($5.76). I also introduced the course, although Augusta National needs no introduction, and described how rain in the forecast may affect play. If you’re looking to incorporate some blue chip stocks into your portfolio, you can find that preview here.

Not only do the biggest tournaments bring the biggest prizes, they also provide more ways to earn them. The pure strength of this field means that players like Rickie Fowler and Sebastiàn Muñoz who are usually reserved for the top-25 spots in our ranking can fly under the radar, meaning lower IPO prices and increased upside. Fowler finished T9 in 2019 and 2nd in 2018 while Muñoz will make his Masters debut having already returned at least +100% ROI to his investors five separate times since the PGA restart in June.

Next to strokes gained approach, another helpful metric should be how players performed at Shadow Creek, the host of the 2021 CJ Cup. Two time Masters runner-up (2015, 2017) Justin Rose was quoted saying “this golf course [Shadow Creek] actually is great preparation for Augusta National” and other stars including Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy echoed that sentiment, especially regarding the greens. Only Bubba Watson, who finished T7, managed to crack the top-10 without a top-25 performance in strokes gained putting at Shadow Creek.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Fair Value Rankings and see who looks like they could outperform their IPO pricing: 

Jason Kokrak (Debut)

In four events this year, Kokrak has already made $514,185 more than he did in the entire 2020 season. His investors have reaped the benefits, seeing returns better than +90% in five of seven events since the Wyndham Championship. Though he has struggled with putting in the past (151st in 2020), Kokrak seems to have figured out his flat stick for now. He led the field in strokes gained putting at Shadow Creek and ranks 1st among the field entering the Masters. Look for Kokrak to make a splash in his Masters debut.

Jordan Spieth (T21 in 2019)

If there is ever a good time to bet on Jordan Spieth in his current form (and there may not be) it is this week at Augusta National. Spieth has played the Masters six times. He has four top-3 finishes, including a win, and ranks 1st and 3rd in strokes gained total and strokes gained putting per round in the last five years. He can also claim the best career scoring average at Augusta, edging out Tiger Woods by more than half a stroke (in 62 fewer rounds). Unfortunately, Spieth has not outperformed his IPO price since July and does not have a made cut this year, though he came close last week. His history at the Masters will likely drive his price too high this week, making it a good idea to save capital for lesser known players down the board.

Quick Hits:

  • Bubba Watson (T12 in 2019) is a two time Masters champion (2012, 2014) and ranks 3rd in SG: Approach among the field this year. He also returned +188% with his T7 finish at the CJ Cup.
  • Matt Kuchar (T12 in 2019) has four top-10s in his Masters career and hasn’t missed the cut in 10 straight years. 
  • Jason Day (T5 in 2019) slipped to 36th in our rankings, giving him a breakeven rank of 28.2. In nine appearances, he has finished below T28 just once (in 2012). He finished T7 at last week’s Houston Open. 

Lanto Griffin (Debut)

Griffin has turned out to be one of the most lucrative investments on JockMKT, but he is continuously overlooked by investors and has an average IPO of just $2.54. That should change soon as he has generated over +100% ROI six separate times, including +169.7% at the CJ Cup, which is tied with Dustin Johnson, and Si Woo Kim for the second most in JockMKT history (Mackenzie Hughes who has doubled investments seven times is not in the field). 

Brendan Todd (Debut)

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but Brendon Todd is not the same golfer he was at the end of last season. He has generated negative returns in his last three events, culminating in a disappointing -83.3% performance at the Bermuda Championship where he was the defending champion.

Francesco Molinari (T5 in 2019)

One of the best things about the PGA Market format is that a player doesn’t necessarily need to have an impressive result in order to generate impressive returns. Francesco Molinari proved that last week by finishing T15 at the Houston Open, eight strokes behind the winner, and returning a whopping +249% ROI to his investors. Molinari has only played in two PGA events this year so the 54-hole leader from 2019 should be a great value investment this week.

Those hunting for even more value (aka everyone) should keep an eye on Lee Westwood as well. Despite an abysmal performance last week, Westwood’s six top-10 finishes at Augusta make him a stellar investment at $2.44 a share. 

The Champions (Tour)

It is hard to find anyone rooting against Fred Couples, Bernhard Langer, or Vijay Singh at The Masters. It is even harder to find a year that Fred Couples has missed the cut. The 1992 champion has missed just 4 cuts in 34 starts since 1983 (though one miss came in 2019). Langer has missed 10 cuts, but won in both 1985 and 1993 while Singh has played in every Masters since 1994 (26 events) and missed only seven cuts. Unfortunately, it’s not April and this may be the year to bet against them. November conditions will put a premium on distance and the veterans will have to fight to keep up. However, their 18 combined top-10s on the 2020 Champions Tour do provide a glimmer of hope for yet another great story.

Justin Harding (T12 in 2019)

If Justin Harding IPOs for his fair value of $1.21 and repeats his 2019 performance, he will return +520%. Double his IPO and you still get +210%. Another player with only two starts on the PGA Tour this year, Harding is an amazing investment as well as proof that there is value throughout the field, especially at the season’s biggest events. Don’t miss out!

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