Fair Value Preview: Northern Trust

Talk about unlikely winners: Jim freakin’ Herman took home the hardware at the Wyndham Championship over the weekend. He had the 11th lowest Fair Value for our contest last week ($2.39) and opened up at +75000 on DraftKings, and his Jock MKT IPO price was just $1.67! That is astronomical. The win catapulted him from 192nd to 54th in the FedEx Cup standings, and into the Playoffs for just the fourth time in his career.

Those very playoffs will begin this Thursday with the Northern Trust at TPC Boston. Traditionally, this tournament was called the Deutsche Bank Championship (and for 2017-18 the Dell Technologies Championship) and played over Labor Day Weekend, but with the adjustment of the playoff format from 4 weeks to 3 and general haphazardous whimsy this year has been planned with, we get the Northern Trust this weekend.

In years past, the winner’s circle at TPC Boston has been filled with players who gain strokes on their approach and on the fast, bentgrass greens. A Par-71 totaling 7,342 yards, (most) players ball-striking will be somewhat neutralized.

Here are the Fair Value ranks among the field and who looks like they could outperform their IPO pricing:

Bryson DeChambeau ($10.00)

DeChambeau is the last winner at TPC Boston among the field in 2018, and that was before he was all beefed up. He is going to rip this course apart.

Dustin Johnson ($7.51)

In nine trips to TPC Boston, Johnson has four top 10 finishes and is the only player with three consecutive top 20s there. It looked like he put the back injury behind him at the PGA Championship and should be one of the favorites this weekend.

Jason Day ($7.28)

Day has been playing incredibly well over the past six weeks, not finishing lower than 7th in any of his last four starts. While he missed his last cut at TPC Boston (Dell Tech Championship, 2018), he made his previous 10 and chipped in three top 10s over that span. Ride the form/experience.

Webb Simpson ($6.52)

With a win at Boston and return to form last week (T3), Simpson and his elite short game will enter the Northern Trust oozing with confidence and presents a great buy opportunity outside the top 10 in Fair Value.

Paul Casey ($6.13)

Casey is third among the field in SG:TOT over the past five tournaments at TPC Boston and is 8th in True SG of those who have played at least eight rounds there. The veteran’s elite approach should keep him in the mix all weekend.

Tyrell Hatton ($5.39)

Known as a great player on the greens, Hatton’s putter has actually held him back in recent weeks. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship after losing a whopping 3.7 strokes putting after two days. However, his irons have been playing up and he’s a great bet to bounce back if he can figure out the putter.

Kevin Na ($4.39)

The PGA Championship was a disaster, sure, but Na was on a decent little run before San Fran. He gained strokes on his approach and putting over his four previous starts and offers great value at his IPO.

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