Fair Value Preview: BMW Championship

Dustin Johnson sure has put his back injury behind him. After one of the most dominant weekends of golf in recent memory, DJ has reasserted himself as World #1 and leapt to the top of the FedEx Cup Standings. So dominant as he seeks the first Fedex Cup Championship of his storied career.

He will look to continue his championship quest this week as the Tour travels to Olympia Fields CC in Illinois for the BMW Championship. A USGA rotation course, the only two professional tournaments to take place at Olympia were the 1928 and 2003 US Open. Given that, there is little to no useful course history here. However, the 2015 US Amateur (won by Bryson Dechambeau) was played here as well as the regular NCAA Fighting Illini Invitational, but both offer an incomplete picture.

The course is a long Par-70, totaling 7,366 yards. Seven Par-4s play over 450 yards and two par 3s longer than 215. Ball-striking will be central to the players who want to stay near the top as will iron play for long approaches. For what it’s worth, the last five winners at BMW all scored -20 or better. Of course, the venues have been different, but one must score early and often to compete at this stage in the season.

Note this a 70-golfer tournament and there is no cut. The Jock MKT final share valuations pay out the top 59 golfers above 1.00 chip, so there should be plenty of pricing opportunity throughout the week.

Here are the Fair Value ranks among the field and who looks like they could outperform their IPO pricing:

Jon Rahm ($10.39)

Since his win at Memorial, Rahm has been steadily climbing back into contention finishing T52, T13, and T6 over his last three starts. He is top three among players in SG:OTT since the restart and his strong irons will play up this week. He’s worth the hefty price tag,

Bryson DeChambeau ($8.75)

Did someone say ball-striking? I am inclined to fork over whatever Bryson is going for whenever the Tour moves to a course like Olympia. If you needed any more convincing, he won the Amateur event that took place here in 2015.

Scottie Scheffler ($7.07)

Scheffler is coming into this week in exceptional form, finishing T4 in each of his last two starts and sneaking into our top-10 in price. Tee to green is the strongest part of his game and that should keep him in the mix with the leaders this week.

Tyrell Hatton ($6.26)

Irons, irons, irons. Hatton brings his well-rounded game over to Olympia this week looking to avenge his inconsistencies at the Northern Trust. He is the top player in the field on approach shots between 175 and 200 yards and given the volume of lofty par-4s, he (and you) will be able to make some money from that distance.

Harris English ($6.06)

Poor Harris, man. All he did was shoot a casual 265 (-19) in Boston without coming within spitting distance of DJ in the tournament. However, the 2nd place finish did catapult him from 27th to 6th in the FedEx Cup Standings. Another strong week will have English in play for a Cup Championship.

Tony Finau ($5.95)

A missed cut last week has sunk his value, but Finau represents a great buy opportunity ahead of this week. He leads the field on par-4s over 450 yards since the restart and has the strong irons needed to stay near the top.

Cameron Champ ($4.24)

I loooove Champ down here. Brutal as he may be around and on the greens, he’s a ball-striker to the max only behind DeChambeau in SG:OTT among the field. He’s also won the NCAA Illini Invitational here at Olympia for the Texas A&M Aggies.

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