Fair Value Preview: 3M Open

John Rahm watched his colossal lead almost slip away before locking up an impressive victory at Memorial last weekend. In doing so, he became the newly minted #1 player in the world. Now, after two weeks in central Ohio, the Tour will travel north to Minnesota for the 3M Open.

Played at TPC Twin Cities just outside of Minneapolis, a course designed by Arnold Palmer with assistance from Tour veteran Tom Lehman, expect the field to score early and often. Last year’s winner, Matthew Wolf took home the glory with a -21 after making eagle on the 72nd hole to stave off Bryson DeChambeau.

Low scores will be vital to staying in the hunt, players will need to exercise caution as the course is covered in landmines: 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps. Otherwise, this is a real ball-strikers course extending over 7400 yards total with sprawling fairways to boot. Last year, players hit 66% of fairways compared to the Tour average of 60%.

Here are the Fair Value ranks among the field and who looks like they could outperform their projected prices:

The Favorites

Tommy Fleetwood- Finally back in the States, Fleetwood may be the best golfer in the field this week. This course will award those who can consistently execute on scoring chances and avoid serious mistakes (water). Fleetwood’s clean, sound game will help him do just that.

Paul Casey- Casey missed his first cut of the season last week; an 8 on a par 3 can do that to you. Still, he was 3rd in SG:OTT at Memorial and is top 10 among this week’s field in SG:TTG since the restart. One of the best ball-strikers on Tour, expect Casey to rebound

Harris English- After a brushup with Covid, it seems as if English is back on track with a T13 finish at Memorial. Flying under the radar, English’s strong all around game will keep him atop the leaderboard in Minneapolis.

The Middle Tier

Erik van Rooyen- My favorite play of the week, the University of Minnesota Alumni has spent lots of time at TPC Twin Cities and seems to be back on track after the Memorial. After missing 2/4 cuts since the restart, van Rooyen was 6th last week in SG:TTG and 3rd in SG:APP. Absolutely love him at $6.43. 

Henrik Norlander- The imposing Swede is tied with Dustin Johnson in SG:TTG since the restart and managed T6 finish overall last week. That was while going negative in SG:OTT, mostly due to a brutal Sunday off the tee. I like a return to the mean in Minneapolis this weekend.

Doc Redman- In spite of a brutal showing on the greens in Dublin, Doc managed to gain over three strokes ball-striking in just two days. He’s top 10 among the field in SG:TTG since the restart and will be in the mix if he can just be average on the greens.

A Darkhorse

Tom Lehman- Heck, he helped design the course. For $2.29? Let’s see him make the cut.

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