Jimmy Butler Under 28.5 Points

While Jimmy Butler has been playing like one of the best stars in the league, the 28.5 point line tonight seems too high given Jimmy’s stats of late. 

Jimmy had 56 and 42 point games against Milwaukee in the first round, but his PPG have dropped in this Knicks series. In 4 games against the Knicks this season that includes both the regular season and postseason, Jimmy is averaging just 22.5 points. In his last 10 games, Jimmy is averaging just 25 points and in his 2 games against the Knicks in this series, the Heat star scored 28 and 25 points respectively. 

The Knicks play extremely stingy defense and had the 8th best defensive rating amongst all teams in the regular season. Their focus is going to be on containing Jimmy Butler, which will ultimately create opportunity for other Heat players. Miami is a deep team with multiple players showing up in this series. Jimmy doesn’t need to go for 30+ points for the Heat to win, so I expect a Miami W tonight and Jimmy to go under the 28.5 point line. 

Take the under on Jimmy’s 28.5 point line tonight. 

Kyle Lowry Over 1.5 3-Pointers

This line looks way too low for how Kyle Lowry has been showing up in the playoffs. Lowry tends to be looked at as the forgotten star on the Miami Heat, but he has playoff experience and is an NBA champion. Respect is deserved and his recent stat lines call for an over 1.5 3-Pointers tonight vs. the New York Knicks. 

Lowry has hit at least 2 3-pointers in 3 of Miami’s last 4 games and is shooting 33% from beyond the arc. That percentage goes up to 37% in Miami’s last 10 games and up to 50% in the Heat’s last 3 games when Lowry has hit 2+ 3 pointers. 

He has a career average of 1.7 three-pointers made per game. The Heat have an offensive style that heavily emphasizes three-point shooting. The Knicks have allowed opposing teams to shoot an average of 12.2 three-pointers per game this season, which could provide ample opportunities for Lowry to take and make shots from beyond the arc.

Based on Kyle Lowry’s career stats, the Miami Heat’s offensive style, the Knicks’ tendency to allow 3-point attempts, and Lowry’s recent performance, it’s reasonable to expect that he will score more than 1.5 three-pointer in a game against the New York Knicks.

Hammer the over on Lowry tonight. 

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