We’ve got a perfectly sized slate on deck in the NBA this Friday. This nine-gamer falls right into the sweet spot where we’ve found a ton of success this year and has game scripts that are all over the map. Our low water mark is a 210.5-point affair between Dallas and Philadelphia that should remain fairly close. On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve got the Spurs as seven-point favorites against the Rockets in a game totaling 237.5 points. On this size of slate, I tend to focus my investment on the mid-tier players in favorable matchups whose prices have been suppressed by the sheer volume of players on the board. I also look to take several stabs at Penny Stock players who can take advantage of some extra run and deliver considerable returns. We’ll have to keep a close eye on everyone’s price as the IPO window closes because there are routinely players who go overlooked and capitalizing on those soft spots will provide a very profitable foundation to your portfolio.
Blue Chip
Dejounte Murray | PG | San Antonio Spurs
Jock MKT Projection – 46.81 (4th)
Max IPO Bid – $12.10
Break-Even Rank – 7.9
Dejounte Murray continues to be one of my favorite plays on JockMKT. His usage is absolutely through the roof, he nearly averaged a triple-double in the month of January and he has the upside to be the top-scorer on any given slate. Despite all that, his IPO price is routinely outside of the top 10 on larger slates. I expect him to get a bit more attention on tonight’s six-gamer, but still not his just due. He has the fourth-highest projection on the board tonight at 44.23 fantasy points but that mark is nearly six points below his average since the start of the new year. He’s had slate-winning performances of 59 or more points three times in that stretch of games and has yielded an incredible 396% ROI to his investors during his 14-game hot streak. He draws a stellar matchup tonight against a Rockets team allowing more fantasy points to his position than any other team in the league. On a slate this size, there are only about a dozen guys with 40-points+ as their median, and Murray’s involvement in the Spurs’ game-plan makes him a sure bet to finish inside the top 10.
Mid Cap
Gary Trent | SG | Toronto Raptors
Jock MKT Projection – 33.64 (29th)
Max IPO Bid – $5.85
Break-Even Rank – 28.06
I’m hoping that Trent’s so-so performance last night against Chicago is going to keep him off most people’s radars. Prior to that game, Trent was on a streak of five-straight where he scored over 39 points and averaged 43.4 fantasy points. The primary driver behind this is his emergence as a scorer in this offense; over that streak he is averaging nearly 30 points on 21 shot attempts per game. Against Chicago, Trent went 5-13 from the field, including three of eight from distance, en route to his lowest fantasy output in his last six. If he is going to shoot as often as he has been, 26 points is basically his floor game and I’m bullish on a rebound tonight. He also could not walk into a better spot for a bounce-back than the one he has tonight. His opponent in the Hawks is the sixth-most favorable matchup for Shooting Guards, but allows that production by way of giving up nearly 24 points and four 3PM per game to the position. I’m projecting another 20-attempt night for Trent and if he gets back around his usual FG and 3PT percentage, he could easily get into mid-40s scoring and finish inside the top 15 on JockMKT.
Penny Stock
Javonte Green | SF | Chicago Bulls
Jock MKT Projection – 18.41 (101th)
Max IPO Bid – $2.45
Break-Even Rank – 58.38
Javonte Green has quietly been coming on as of late. He’s only picked up a couple extra minutes here and there over his last handful of games but the Bulls have shifted the way he’s utilized and that’s what has led to his uptick. He’s routinely into the high-20s of minutes but is now getting about twice as many shot attempts up and is driving to the hoop, leading to an uptick in free throw attempts as well. Add just a bit more scoring to Green’s steady contribution of ancillary stats and he’s now in contention to regularly finish inside the top 50. Tonight Green is in one of the two games slated to go over 230 total points and should see plenty of opportunity with the Bull’s second-unit. There is some likelihood that the Bulls will be without Zach LaVine for tonight’s game so we’ll have to keep an eye on the news. While this would likely boost Green’s opportunity, it would also increase his IPO price to a point where it no longer makes sense to acquire him.